The National Law Journal: There Are Fewer First-Year Associates—But Don't Blame AI (Yet)
A recent National Law Journal article by Jon Campisi examines what the latest NLJ 500 data shows about first-year associate hiring trends — and whether the modest declines can be attributed to AI adoption.
Across the 500 largest US firms, first-year associate headcount dipped 3.2% in 2025, with average class sizes at the largest 100 firms continuing to fall, from 72 in 2023 to 65 in 2025. Experts quoted in the piece caution against reading these figures as evidence of AI-driven displacement, pointing instead to post-pandemic overcapacity and rate pressure as more immediate factors.
Rose Corbett, Managing Director at Macrae, comments in the piece on how AI is beginning to feature in conversations with lateral partners — and where its impact is most likely to be felt first:
"We know that everybody's starting to adopt it in everyday life. So, we see how phenomenal it can be as a time-saving tool. If you're looking at just that sort of mundane work that was not going to be billable and partners just need it done quickly, that's the beginning. It will start to seep in as we see it utilized more and more."
The article explores the broader structural questions now facing law firms: how to develop junior lawyers if routine work is compressed by technology, what the associate of 2030 looks like, and whether the traditional pyramid model — many junior lawyers supporting a smaller partner tier — is beginning to flatten. Experts across the piece broadly agree that the more significant AI impact on hiring is likely to emerge in the classes of 2027 and 2028, when decisions will have been made with a fuller picture of how the technology is reshaping legal service delivery.
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